Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
The Indian government is considering additional relief packages for vulnerable sectors like MSMEs to mitigate the impact of the ongoing West Asia crisis on the economy and inflation.
The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
Passenger vehicle (PV) sales growth in India is expected to moderate to 3-5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in financial year 2027 (FY27) due to a high base and preponed replacement demand, according to a report released by India Ratings and Research on Thursday.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Global rating Moody's on Monday affirmed India's long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at 'Baa3' with a 'stable' outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. The rating agency also affirmed India's other short-term local-currency rating at P-3.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
Inflation data, quarterly earnings and global trends will be the major driving factors for stock markets this week, analysts said. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Thursday, helped by a rally in blue-chip Larsen & Toubro and the Economic Survey projecting the GDP growth of 6.8-7.2 per cent for the next fiscal.
'The day that the market realises that they've overspent (on AI) and there's a sudden collapse in the capex, then India can start outperforming again.'
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
Tata Steel is strategically positioned for growth, leveraging India's robust steel demand, significant cost transformation programmes, and favourable protectionist policies in the EU and UK. The company is expanding its India capacity and optimising operations in its European units to enhance profitability and reduce debt.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
A Jefferies report warns that the IT services sector is set for a structural shift due to AI, requiring talent and operating model overhauls and increasing cyclicality.
'Except for extremely conservative investors, others can consider allocating 10 to 20 per cent of their portfolio to small caps.'
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Gold prices are likely to trade firm next week as traders await key economic data, including US inflation numbers, for fresh cues on interest rate outlook, while silver may remain volatile amid shifting risk sentiment and speculative activity, analysts said.
India's services sector growth rose to a two-month high of 58.5 in January, on faster expansion in new business intake and output, prompting service providers to hire additional staff, a monthly survey said on Wednesday.
Around 73 per cent of employers interviewed intend to hire freshers during January-June 2026, with recruitment decisions mainly driven by internships and real-world project experience rather than academic credentials alone, a report said on Wednesday. Nearly 3 in 4 employers (73 per cent) intend to hire freshers during January-June this year, marking a 3 per cent increase over the previous half-year, according to TeamLease EdTech Career Outlook Report HY1 2026.
Assessing where their funds are flowing gives traders a hidden edge in predicting the market direction and momentum.
The selloff in domestic information technology stocks intensified on Friday, with the Nifty IT index sliding as much as 5.2 per cent during the session before paring losses to close 1.44 per cent lower.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel tanked the most by 4.57 per cent. ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were also among the laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, ITC and Bharat Electronics were among the gainers.
A strong third-quarter (October-December/Q3) performance for 2025-26 (FY26) has helped the stock of India's largest listed pharmaceutical (pharma) company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, gain about 7 per cent since the start of February.
After three consecutive months of heavy selling, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in the first week of February, infusing more than Rs 8,100 crore in Indian equities, aided by improving risk sentiment, along with a trade deal with the US.
The bull-market in gold is not yet over and prices can rise to $6,200 an ounce (oz) by mid-2026, up nearly 25 per cent from current levels, according to UBS.
Silver and gold prices declined sharply in the futures trade on Friday as traders booked profits at elevated levels after a record-breaking rally, tracking a bearish sentiment in global markets and a rebound in the US dollar.
Fears around artificial intelligence (AI) sparked a global selloff in information technology (IT) stocks, dragging down domestic software shares and prompting the heaviest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows since the second half of July 2025.
Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended 2.5 per cent higher on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent.
Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, InterGlobe Aviation, ICICI Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the other major gainers. Axis Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Trent and Titan were the laggards.
Stock market investors this week would track the renewed tariff tensions between the US and China, domestic inflation data, besides, quarterly earnings from blue-chips HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries would also drive the momentum in equities, analysts said.
Fund managers are divided on the prospects for beaten-down information technology (IT) stocks, reflected in the wide variance in equity mutual funds' (MFs) sector exposure. An analysis by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research shows that while six large fund houses were overweight the sector relative to its weight in the Nifty 200 index, five were underweight as of October 2025. UTI MF had the highest exposure at 17.8 per cent, while SBI MF sat at the bottom with 5 per cent.
The rupee, which was the worst performing Asian currency in 2025 and also in January, was the best performing Asian currency on Tuesday.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
India's corporate bond market, driven by public sector undertaking (PSU) banks and financial institutions last year, is losing momentum since the second quarter of FY26.
Two-wheeler (2W) major Bajaj Auto on Friday posted its highest ever quarterly revenue and profit during the third quarter of 2025-26 (Q3FY26). Bajaj Auto's consolidated net profit for the quarter grew by 25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 2,749 crore, with the revenue also growing 23 per cent to Rs 16,204 crore.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) on Friday reported a 13 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in consolidated revenue from operations for the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), largely due to the cyberattack on its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in late August that forced a shutdown of its manufacturing operations for over five weeks.
